For the Tories and their voters, the overriding sentiment following the devastating General Election results is to assume that things could not have gone much worse. But one polling expert’s research now begs to differ.
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Sam Freedman, a political analyst whose own forecasts proved to be more accurate than the official Exit Poll this year, has identified just how close the blue rosettes came to a total and complete wipeout across the UK.
With all 650 seats now accounted for, the Tories ended up with a dismal 121 of them. Labour, with 412 seats in total, now have a large majority similar to that on Tony Blair’s first term in 1997. The chasm is huge, but the Conservatives are now the oppositon.
Liberal Democrats ruthlessly efficient in making gains
The surge in votes for the Liberal Democrats, who gained a whopping 63 seats an increased their Parliamentary presence to 71, had some pollsters predicting that they would push the Tories into third. Well, they weren’t far off.
In total, there were 79 Conservative seats where their vote share was outnumbered by the cumulative total of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Only a few dozen of winning Tory tickets actuallyt had an outright majority over the two centre-left parties.
Tories to operate in opposition – largely thanks to ‘split votes’
Had one party made way for the other, or if tactical voting had been applied efficiently in these seats, the scale of the Tory defeat could have been even more humiliating – with a worst case scenario of a 42-seat return suggested by Freedman.
“For many of the seats I had staying Tory, my reasoning was that there was a split opposition, and so tactical voting wouldn’t work. In just 42 seats in England and Wales was the Tory vote bigger than the combined Labour/Lib Dem one.”
“Senior figures like Suella Braverman and Mel Stride were saved by split votes. This saved the party from complete oblivion, and left Labour with a 1997-type majority. But that will make little difference to what they can do.” | Sam Freedman