Donald Trump has said that if the Republicans win both chambers in November’s midterm elections, he will offer every adult American $5,000.
Trump’s payout plan would cost more than a trillion dollars, as per the BBC.
The US president made the controversial offer as he made a speech at the Republican Party’s first-ever convention in the middle of a US presidential term.
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Trump gave no details on how the plan would work, however, nor did he provide any details where over a trillion dollars would come from.
His promise was quickly labelled as an “empty promise” by the Democrats, while others questioned if such a pledge was legal in the first place.
What Trump’s promise means for the adults in the United States
“I can make this promise to you. And here is my promise. If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate… because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000”, Trump said on the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention on 9 September, in Dallas, Texas.
As there are nearly 270 adults in America, this means that a $5,000 (£3,700) payout would cost the US government some $1.3 trillion.
“The Trump dividend”, as the president called his promise, would mean that the money must be spent in the US.
According to Sky News, NBC reported that the White House did not immediately respond to questions about where the estimated $1.35trn would come from and how the requirement to spend in the US could be enforced.
Would Trump even be allowed to pay citizens $5,000 – revealed
This is not the first time Trump makes a big claim and this kind of promise, so there are questions how it can work, if that promise it’s legal or whether it’s simply a bribe and how it can be afforded, according to Sky News.
On social media, many called out the promise with some highlighting that it would appear to constitute a federal crime.
In late 2025, a $2,000 dividend was proposed by Trump from the money raised through tariffs, while he said he didn’t think he needed any Congress approval.
Military members did receive a $1,776 check, however, which was called a “warrior dividend” by Trump.
But Trump had no authority to send money to Americans without approval from Congress, according to Marc Goldwein, the senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
According to Sky News, dividends are something companies pay when there’s a surplus, and the The US is running $2trn annual deficits and has $40trn in debt.
Mid-term defeats predicted for Trump
It looks increasingly likely that the Republicans will lose control of at least one of the government’s chambers in November’s midterms.
With Trump’s polling numbers in decline, thanks to issues such as inflation and his self-inflicted war in Iran, it is expected that the Democrats will win back control of the House of Representatives and overturn the Republican’s razor-thin three seat majority.
It is also possible that the Democrats gain back the Senate, although this looks set to be a much closer race with the party having to flip at least three seats in states Trump won in 2024, including some that elected him by double digits.
Winning back control of either chamber would allow Democrats to block Trump’s legislative agenda and give their lawmakers subpoena powers they can use to investigate his administration.
Despite Trump’s pledge, the bookies still reckon it’s unlikely Republicans hold on to their majorities.
Republicans are 7/2 (a 22% implied chance) to retain control of both chambers of Congress in November’s midterm elections according to William Hill,
Democrats are the 1/6 favourites to win control of the House, with Republicans priced at 7/2. Meanwhile, both Democrats and Republicans are priced at 5/6 to control the Senate after the midterms.
The most likely overall outcome is Democrat control of both the House and Senate at even-money. A divided Congress, with Democrats winning the House and Republicans retaining the Senate, is next in the market at 6/4.
A complete Republican hold on Congress is priced at 7/2, while the least likely outcome – Republicans controlling the House and Democrats taking the Senate – is a 33/1 chance.
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Donald Trump’s proposed $5,000 payment to every US citizen should his party win both the House and Senate has put November’s midterms firmly back in the spotlight, but the latest odds show that Republicans still have work to do if they are to retain control of Congress.
“Democrats are clear favourites to regain the House at 1/6, while the Senate is effectively a coin toss at 5/6 each. That makes a divided Congress, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate, a probable outcome at 6/4.
“Republicans are 7/2 to keep both chambers, so Trump’s proposed payout is far from impossible, but the market currently expects the House to be the major obstacle to a full Republican victory in November.”