He couldn’t, could he? Though there’s been little in the way of polling data coming out of Clacton ahead of next month’s farcical by-election, the bookies have expectedly got Reform down as the overwhelming favourites. Alas, Count Binface remains in with a fighting chance.
ALSO READ: Reform ‘no longer favourites’ to win next election – as chance of victory plummets by one-third
Betting odds for the Clacton by-election
As it stands, a number of bookmakers – including Betway, Bet365, and BetFred – have the leading opposition candidate at odds of 9/1. That translates to a 10% chance of him causing the mother of all upsets, and unseating Nigel Farage from his role as an MP.
It’s an outside shot, of course. These odds are about the same as – or even slightly more favourable than – a newly promoted Premier League team winning an away game against one of the ‘top four’ teams. It’s a tall order, but not an impossible one for the so-called ‘protest candidate’
When is the Clacton by-election?
The people of Clacton will head to the polls on Thursday 13 August. Following intense scrutiny over Nigel Farage’s finances and undeclared donations, the Reform leader decided to call for a by-election earlier this month. However, none of the major political parties have fielded a candidate.
The legitimacy of the by-election has come into question, with critics suggesting that Mr. Farage is simply trying to avoid or delay a Parliamentary investigation into the £5 million donation he received from Christopher Harborne in 2024. However, at odds of 1/20, Reform remain in pole position.
“While Reform remain favourites to retain Clacton at 1/20, the story from our betting data is that punters are increasingly looking elsewhere. An incredible 75% of all bets placed on the by-election have been on Count Binface to win and make history, despite him being a 9/1 outsider.” | Betway
ALSO READ: 94-year-old Clacton voter’s beautiful takedown of Reform canvasser is must-watch
Betting trends show ‘support for Reform is falling’
Earlier this week, Betway also revealed that fewer people are putting their money behind Reform. Instead, more punters are now backing their opponents to win in both upcoming by-elections, and the General Election slated for 2029.
Industry regulators note that there has been a significant fall in Reform’s chances of forming the next national government. Over the last two months, the former odds-on favourites have seen their price drift from 10/11 (a 52% chance of victory) to 15/8 (a 34% chance of victory), dropping by around one-third.
At the same time, Labour has also found itself on an upwards trajectory. Opinion polls have started to reflect a clear ‘Burnham bounce’, with Labour gaining support in the wake of appointing a new leader. They now have a 40% chance of winning the next election – replacing Reform as the favourites.
“Back in May, Reform were favourites for the next General Election at 10/11, giving them an implied 52.4% chance of victory. Today they have plummeted to 15/8, reducing that figure to just 34.8% — a drop of almost one-third.”
“At the same time, Labour have moved in the opposite direction. Their odds have shortened from 4/1 to 6/4, doubling their implied chances from 20 per cent to 40%. We’ve seen support for Reform steadily decline among our customers in recent months.” | Betway