Could it be a case of ‘death by a thousand scandals’ for Reform? Following a tumultuous time for the party, public support for the right-wing organisation has waned – up to the point where bookmakers are now noting a complete shift in momentum.
ALSO READ: 94-year-old Clacton voter’s beautiful takedown of Reform canvasser is must-watch
Betting trends show ‘support for Reform is falling’
In a statement published earlier this week, Betway revealed that fewer people are putting their money behind Reform. Instead, more punters are now backing their opponents to win in both upcoming by-elections, and the General Election slated for 2029.
Industry regulators note that there has been a significant fall in Reform’s chances of forming the next national government. Over the last two months, the former odds-on favourites have seen their price drift from 10/11 (a 52% chance of victory) to 15/8 (a 34% chance of victory), dropping by around one-third.
At the same time, Labour has also found itself on an upwards trajectory. Opinion polls have started to reflect a clear ‘Burnham bounce’, with Labour gaining support in the wake of appointing a new leader. They now have a 40% chance of winning the next election – replacing Reform as the favourites.
“Back in May, Reform were favourites for the next General Election at 10/11, giving them an implied 52.4% chance of victory. Today they have plummeted to 15/8, reducing that figure to just 34.8% — a drop of almost one-third.” | Betway
“At the same time, Labour have moved in the opposite direction. Their odds have shortened from 4/1 to 6/4, doubling their implied chances from 20 per cent to 40%. We’ve seen support for Reform steadily decline among our customers in recent months.”
When is the Clacton by-election?
Betting trends also indicate that support for Reform is on the decline for Nigel Farage in Clacton. However, given this upcoming by-election is an orchestrated farce, it doesn’t particularly impact their chances of winning the seat again on 13 August. At 9/1, though, Count Binface will say he’s still in this race.
“While Reform remain favourites to retain Clacton at 1/20, the story from our betting data is that punters are increasingly looking elsewhere. Clacton is Reform’s to lose, but betting activity suggests punters are questioning whether the momentum behind the party is beginning to fade.”
“An incredible 75 per cent of all bets placed on the by-election have been on Count Binface to win and make history, despite him being a 9/1 outsider.” | Betway