It’s hardly as eloquent as e=mc2, but the formula for winning the next general election could be relatively simple for Labour.
With results in from last night’s by-election there’s plenty of reasons to be cheerful in the Labour camp.
The Conservatives suffered their worst loss in a Peterborough election since 1886 and dropped to third in a constituency they held until 2017.
Labour managed to hold on to the seat despite many predicting they would be ousted, with Union activist Lisa Forbes taking 31 per cent of the vote after the previous Labour MP, Fiona Onasanya, was removed.
And for Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps a moment of vindication for sticking to his guns on Brexit.
The Lib Dems and the Greens were kept at bay, which as Lewis Goodall notes, indicates that one of the main factors of their 2017 performance (ability to corral remain vote) is not completely nullified in a Westminster context.
Rather, Labour won by being organised.
Their local campaigning machine was well oiled. Hundreds of activists turned up alongside Labour big wigs such as Gordon Brown and Corbyn himself.
They were also informed, with people on the ground gathering vital data from the start of the year.
The Brexit Party, on the other hand, relied on a national campaign with national infrastructure to try win a local election and it didn’t quite work. But it worked well enough to consign the Conservatives to third place.
Which is the big take home, in my humble opinion.
While this may be just one election held at an extraordinary time in extraordinary circumstances it seems logical that all 533 seats in England will be split in similar ways come a General Election.
The result will be that the Brexit Party will take fewer seats than anticipated but they will also take a bigger share of the Conservative vote.
If this is by-election is reflected nationally it will hand Labour the keys to number 10.
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