The Caerphilly by-election is a warning shot for Nigel Farage. Reform UK may be rising in the polls, but last week’s result shows why he’s destined to fall short of No 10: his party has no friends and plenty of enemies.
In Caerphilly, Reform surged to second place with nearly 36 per cent of the vote – yet Plaid Cymru took the seat. It wasn’t love for Plaid that carried the day, but tactical voting designed to keep Reform out. That dynamic – voters uniting against Farage – is exactly what we can expect at the next general election.
Farage’s problem isn’t popularity; it’s isolation. The Conservatives have ruled out any alliance, while Labour, Plaid, the Lib Dems and Greens all see Reform as a threat. In a system that punishes parties without partners, Reform’s lack of allies is fatal.
Even if they win more seats, Reform will almost certainly fall short of a majority – and they’ll find no one willing to govern with them. The Caerphilly result, then, isn’t just a local story; it’s a national lesson. Farage can stir protest, but not partnership. And in British politics, power belongs to those who can do both.