The latest opinion poll released by Survation and carried out on behalf of the UK Spirits Alliance indicates that if a general election were called tomorrow then Labour would be set to win a record 431 seats, with the Tories reduced from the 365 seats they won in 2019 to a mere 156 seats. That is a majority of 212 seats for Labour.
That result would surpass even Tony Blair’s landslide election victories in 2001 and 2005, where Labour won 418 and 412 seats respectively.
Survation’s poll recorded Labour support at 46 per cent ahead of the Tories on 29 per cent. Importantly, despite the Tories’ attempt to introduce divisive culture wars to shore up their vote, the issues listed as most important among voters were the cost of living, health and the NHS, and the economy.
It is a timely echo of President Clinton’s famous comment on what determines elections: “It’s the economy, stupid”. After 13 years which represent a nadir of both government competence and economic performance in the U.K. it is not a surprise that the swing is on.
Even worse news for the Tories is that seat-by-seat analysis by Survation shows all of the red wall seats in the North being regained by Labour and nine cabinet ministers losing their seats, including Penny Mordaunt (Leader of the House of Commons), Grant Schapps (Defence), Mark Harper (Transport), Mel Stride (work and pensions), Alex Chalk (Justice) Simon Hart (Chief Whip), David TC Davis (Welsh Secretary), Victoria Prentis (Attorney General) and Greg Hands (Party Chairman).
Suella Braverman keeps her seat, presumably so she can become Tory leader, at least for a while until Nigel Farage bags a safe seat in a by-election and replaces her.
Related: ‘Palpable anger’ amongst police following Braverman comments