Leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have signed an agreement of cooperation today in Cardiff calling on the “right to self-determination”.
The leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein also called for the UK government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change in each jurisdiction”.
They demanded a “stronger, fairer economy”, as well as being able to expand “our own energy resources”.
All three nations expressed that their respective nations’ futures “belongs in the European Union”.
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The Telegraph reported yesterday that Prime Minister Andy Burnham suggested to MPs that he could entertain another Scottish referendum if there was a “clear consensus” in favour of holding one.
The last Scottish referendum took place almost 12 years ago to the day, on 18 September 2014.
This marks a watershed moment for the United Kingdom which has existed in its current state for 104 years.
While Scotland and England have shared a monarch since James I in 1603, the union has been official since 1707 under Queen Anne.
Meanwhile, Wales was legally joined to England between 1535 and 1542, but was previously under English rule since 1283.
For the first time, of three first ministers of all the devolved nations represent pro-independence movements, with John Swinney of the SNP in Scotland, Rhun ap Iorwerth of Plaid Cymru in Wales and Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland.
Swinney said on Sunday: “For the first time ever, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are led by pro-independence first ministers. There could be no clearer sign that the status quo is not sustainable – and that Westminster must prepare for a post-UK future.
“The momentum behind serious constitutional change is undeniable. Andy Burnham must now be facing up to the idea that he will go down in history as the final prime minister of the United Kingdom.”
The PM confirmed to Commons that for Northern Ireland to trigger a vote, it was “exactly the same situation in Scotland”.
As per the Good Friday Agreement, a vote to leave the UK can be held in Northern Ireland if it “appears likely” that a majority of people desire it.
A Welsh independence referendum could prove harder, with the nation holding less devolved powers than Scotland and Northern Ireland, having a joint single legal jurisdiction and core legal system.
Furthermore, Wales remains the least in favour of leaving the UK out of the nations, with polls suggesting only 26% would be in favour, although a YesCymru poll puts this number at 32%.
The last major independence referendum took place in Scotland in 2014, where 55.30% of Scots voted to remain part of the UK.
Current polling suggests that a second referendum would be a lot closer, playing out around a margin of a couple percentage points.
Opinion polls on a unified Ireland tend to be harder to discern a concrete outcome from, but most tend to weigh on the side of no, however this gap appears to be shrinking.
What does each nation want?
While the first ministers of all three devolved nations are set to attend the summit to push forward independence referendums, all three want different things.
Scotland, as the most economically robust of the three nations, will be looking for independence – plain and simple.
Those who are pro-independence in Northern Ireland will of course be looking to reunify with Ireland.
Meanwhile, it is suggested that Wales might use the summit to put pressure on Westminster to receive more devolved powers and money which could eventually afford Wales the economic strength to one day leave the UK.
Plaid Cymru is set to demand revenues from the Crown Estate, including the seabed on which offshore wind farms are built, which currently go to the Treasury.
Where all the nations are unified on is in their stance on the European Union, on which they agree they should be part of with Scotland and Wales as new members and Northern Ireland as part of the Republic of Ireland.
However, to hold a referendum in the first place, special powers must be granted by Westminster to allow it, which is what happened in 2014.
How likely is it that this is the start of the end of the United Kingdom?
With Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s stance on increased devolution in the UK, and all three first ministers pro-independence, the perfect storm may have landed.
While further devolution may have slightly left the door ajar for referendums, it is also possible that the carrot may be large enough to tempt the nations into staying with England, if the benefits outweigh the price of independence.
Only time will tell how the electorate in these nations will feel.
Just don’t get any ideas, Cornwall…