With higher fuel prices and ongoing global uncertainty affecting aviation, she explains how airline pricing works behind the scenes and why fares don’t simply rise or fall at random.
Recent geopolitical tensions and higher jet fuel prices have renewed attention on airline pricing, with many travellers noticing fares changing rapidly between searches. Disruption to global oil supplies has added more than $100 to the price of long-haul flights from Europe, a cost likely to trigger higher ticket prices, campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E) said. While fuel costs are one factor affecting airline operating costs, ticket prices are also influenced by demand, competition and sophisticated pricing systems that constantly respond to changing market conditions.
Airline pricing specialist Dina Zhumassultanova has spent more than a decade working on the systems that determine how fares are created and distributed. During her career, she has worked on fare architecture and airline distribution projects involving carriers in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Georgia, helping integrate their fares into international reservation systems and distribution networks.
We asked her why ticket prices can change so quickly, what role fuel costs really play, and whether there is any way travellers can use this knowledge to make more informed booking decisions.
The ticket price does not start with a number
For most passengers, a ticket is simply the final price displayed on the screen – the amount they must pay to board the plane. But in reality, in the aviation industry, a price never appears out of thin air. Determining an airfare involves several layers of planning and technology before it ever reaches a booking website.
“The first level is the tariff architecture, which is created by people. It is this architecture that shapes the fare: it defines its structure, sets the rules for application, restrictions, booking classes, exchange and refund conditions, seasonality, sales restrictions, and much more. All of this is created in accordance with International Air Transport Association (IATA) standards and published through ATPCO,” Dina explained.
This is where future pricing behaviour is established. Although passengers rarely see this part of the process, it determines how a ticket behaves anywhere in the world, from London to Singapore.
During her career, Zhumassultanova has worked on fare architecture and airline distribution projects for airlines including Bek Air, Qanot Sharq and Georgian Airways. Her work has involved helping integrate airline fares into international reservation systems such as Amadeus and Sabre, allowing tickets to be distributed through global booking networks using recognised industry standards.
Why prices actually change
Once the tariff structure is in place, the second level comes into play: revenue management systems. These systems respond to demand by analysing factors such as how many seats remain available, how quickly they are selling, how close the departure date is, and demand for a particular route.
“At this level, the price for the passenger can change. But it’s important to understand that the algorithm doesn’t create a fare from scratch. It operates within the logic originally designed by a human,” Zhumassultanova explained.
This distinction is particularly relevant when markets become volatile. Rising fuel prices or unexpected events do not automatically double ticket prices. Instead, they influence demand and operating costs, which are then processed through pricing systems that have been designed in advance.
“If a ticket costs a certain amount today and is twice as expensive tomorrow, that’s not chaos or coincidence. It’s the result of a pre-established system in which the fare was properly structured according to IATA rules and then adjusted by the revenue management system in response to changing market conditions.”
Errors within those systems can have significant financial consequences. Airlines have occasionally sold premium cabin seats at economy prices because of incorrectly configured fares, highlighting the importance of accurate pricing architecture and quality control.
A system that cannot be fully automated
Given the rapid growth of artificial intelligence, many people assume pricing decisions will eventually become fully automated. According to Zhumassultanova, the reality is more nuanced.
“AI can speed up certain processes, help identify patterns, highlight risks and eliminate some routine work. But it cannot create strategy, logic or architecture on its own. That still requires an understanding of the market, the product, the commercial objectives and how everything behaves within a real sales system.”
She argues that pricing specialists still play an important role by designing the frameworks within which automated systems operate.
Looking beyond the numbers
Interestingly, Zhumassultanova did not begin her career in aviation. She previously worked in hospitality and tourism, an experience she says helped her understand the wider customer journey before specialising in airline pricing. She later undertook professional training in airline fare management through programmes in the Netherlands, Singapore and with ATPCO in the United States.
For travellers, understanding how airline pricing works will not guarantee cheaper tickets. However, it does explain why fares can sometimes change dramatically in a short period of time and why those changes are generally driven by established pricing rules, demand patterns and market conditions rather than arbitrary decisions.
As fuel costs, demand and global events continue to influence aviation, understanding these systems may help travellers make more informed decisions about when to book, while also offering a rare insight into the complex processes behind the price displayed on the screen.