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Home Business and Economics Economics

Sunlit uplands latest: Brexit shrinks UK economy by 5%, with worst still to come

Britain has “significantly underperformed” compared with the EU and US since the vote to leave in June 2016, Goldman Sachs claims.

Jack Peat by Jack Peat
2024-02-13 10:48
in Economics
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The British economy is suffering from the long-term cost of Brexit and has “significantly underperformed” compared with its peers, analysis from investment bank Goldman Sachs has revealed.

A note published late on Friday shows the UK’s decision to leave the European Union could have pinned back the country’s economic growth significantly, leading to an overall reduction of 5 per cent.

Sven Jari Stehn and colleagues said reduced international trade, weak business investment and a drop in migrants coming from Britain’s largest trade partner have all contributed to suppressed growth.

“The evidence points to a significant long-run output cost of Brexit,” they wrote. “The UK has significantly underperformed other advanced economies since the 2016 EU referendum.”

💥SUNLIT UPLANDS LATEST: “The evidence points to a significant long-run output cost of Brexit,” to the tune of 5%, higher than the OBR’s ‘project fear’ 4%.

More worrying, it continues to affect us and set to get worse as new import red tape comes in. ~AAhttps://t.co/YOxRxaKMXt pic.twitter.com/MPTvhNWRzC

— Best for Britain (@BestForBritain) February 13, 2024

Goldman’s conclusion is broadly in line with other estimates of the impact of Brexit.

The Office for Budget Responsibility said last year that Britain’s EU exit likely reduced economic output by 4 per cent, while Bank of England policymaker Jonathan Haskel has said that Brexit has cost every British household £1,000 on average.

Official figures out Thursday will show whether the UK has slipped into recession.

Sunak promised to grow the economy as one of his five pledges, but if the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) gross domestic product data for the final three months of last year shows a contraction, it means the UK was in a recession after two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Related: Sunak’s GB News stunt fails to convince voters

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