In the past 12 months, anti-Trump sentiment in both Canada and Australia has been credited with preventing right-wing conservatives from winning general elections. And, according to the latest polls coming out of Hungary, Team MAGA might just go and make it a hat-trick.
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Who is leading in the Hungary Elections?
Hungarians are set to cast their ballots on Sunday – in what has been described as the country’s most consequential set of elections in recent history. Viktor Orban, the far-right autocrat who currently holds power, received ringing endorsements from Donald Trump and JD Vance this week.
In fact, the US Vice President flew over to the European nation to meet with Orban, and addressed a rally of his supporters. This preceded a long-winded Truth Social post from President Trump, who yesterday encouraged the electorate to show their support for the incumbent.
This was, by all accounts, a last-ditch attempt to influence the vote in Orban’s favour. But has it worked? The evidence, at this point, suggests not. In fact, it would appear that the American influence has had the opposite impact – with the opposition party now EXTENDING their lead in the polls.
Orban vs Magyar: Opponent extends leads over incumbent
Two surveys conducted after Vance’s flying visit to Budapest both show that, while support for Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party remains quite flat, Péter Magyar and his more centrist-leaning Tisza party continue to grow – polling at over 50% in two separate data sets.
It’s also worth noting that these figures were recorded between 7-9 April, spanning the length of Trump and Vance’s ramped-up campaigning for Orban. We’ll have to wait until Sunday to see if this truly was the kiss of death – but these are worrying signs for Hungary’s conservative movement.
Voters in Hungary ‘starting to favour Magyar’
Trends reflected from these recent polls also fall in line with findings from Median, one of Hungary’s leading research teams. Earlier this month, they found that more people believed Magyar was a ‘suitable leader’ – opening up a clear lead over Orban in the process.
“The proportion of those who consider Péter Magyar to be ‘completely’ or ‘rather’ suitable has increased by four percentage points, to 54 percent, meaning that more than half of the country now finds the Tisza Party’s prime ministerial candidate suitable for the position.”
“In comparison, Viktor Orbán is considered suitable by nine percentage points fewer people, at 45 percent, which is a marginally (one percentage point) worse result than in the previous month.” | Median