There is growing evidence to suggest that the Green Party are taking votes away from Reform UK, according to a report.
For months now, Reform have topped the polls and the Greens have surged to unprecedented levels of support following the election of Zack Polanski as party leader.
The prevailing narrative has been that Reform are largely hoovering up votes from unhappy Tory voters whilst the Greens are doing the same with disaffected Labour voters.
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However, in recent weeks Reform’s support has been sliding and new polling analysis suggests another phenomenon may be taking place: the Greens taking Reform votes.
Writing in the New Statesman, Ben Walker highlighted polling of non-voters during the 2024 general who say they are certain to vote at the next one.
Last summer, almost half of this group said they would vote for Reform, but now the number is closer to one in three. At the same time, 16% of this group say they would vote Green at the next general election, up from 12%.
The key factor though is that the number of non-voters in 2024 who say they are sure to vote next time around has stayed the same.
The data suggests the Greens could be tempting would-be voters who this time last year would have gone for Reform.
Looking ahead to the local elections in May, Walker writes that successful results for the Greens could see them “become the first-choice option for anyone looking to keep out Reform.”
He continues:
But could they also take prospective Reform votes as well? Some voters are looking more to Shake Things Up than pursue a necessarily right or left platform. They may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote. There are more of these voters than make the eye, not least given a not insubstantial number of Green voters would prefer Nigel Farage to Keir Starmer in No 10.
It looks like it’s not just Labour votes that Polanski and the Greens can hope to gain then!