We really should have kept the receipts. It seems a growing number of those who backed the Vote Leave campaign in 2016 are coming to terms with the fact Brexit simply hasn’t worked out – and a significant portion of those who wanted out of the EU are now supportive of a second vote on the matter.
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Some Reform and Leave voters would back a second referendum
Data provided by Ipsos this week reveals growing support for another referendum, this time providing the British public with a decade of hindsight. But underneath the headline figures, there is a more intriguing pattern emerging the pro-Leave crowd – which hints at a trace of buyer’s remorse.
According to the pollsters, around 20% of Reform voters are up for another referendum – as are a quarter of declared Leave voters. Those backing the major, established parties of UK politics have also grown more sceptical of the decision to hold the vote in the first place.
“Up to 62% of 2024 Lib Dems also support another referendum – as do 20% of Reform UK voters. And while three-quarters of Remain voters back a second referendum, so do one in four Leave voters. Opposition to another vote is 12% among Remain voters – and 55% among Leave voters.”
“In the last 10 years, voters for all major parties have become more likely to say it was wrong to hold the EU referendum. One in five (19%) Reform UK voters also feel this way – compared with just 4% of UKIP voters who said the same in 2016.” | Ipsos
Is another Brexit referendum on the cards?
Professor Bobby Duffy is Director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London. He has acknowledged the shift in public sentiment towards Brexit. However, he notes that the change in collective opinion has been a slow one – and this may impact any future decisions to hold a second referendum.
“As we approach the 10-year anniversary of Brexit, more people now say it was wrong to hold the referendum than felt that way back in 2016, and the share of the public who think Brexit is going worse than they expected has grown.”
“After 10 years of political turbulence and economic concern about the consequences of leaving, what’s perhaps most notable is how glacially slowly opinions have shifted – at this rate, it’ll be many more years before we get to a clearcut demand for change.” | Bobby Duffy
Ten years of Brexit
Public support for Brexit has nosedived in the 10 years since the referendum was held. Promises weren’t kept, uplands weren’t sunlit. The British public has watched the whole thing unravel in the form of decimated trade, economic woes, and regulatory nightmares.
Returning to the pre-2016 status quo, therefore, has gradually become more appealing to the masses. A host of polls taken in the two years since Labour were elected back into government show a stronger appetite for closer ties with the EU – and support for a second Brexit referendum is swelling.
According to Ipsos, those backing a second referendum outweigh those who are against it by 48% to 27% – and in the last five years, the percentage of people who feel Brexit ‘is not working out as expected’ has almost doubled.