Who remembers ‘will of the people’? It was a phrase used relentlessly in the first few years after Brexit, but when more people came around to the reality of it, the term was conveniently discarded by those who had previously trumpeted it – and it now represents something entirely different.
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Should Labour commit to a second referendum on Brexit?
The fact of the matter is, public support for Brexit has nosedived in the 10 years since the referendum was held. Promises weren’t kept, uplands weren’t sunlit. The British public has watched the whole thing unravel in the form of decimated trade, economic woes, and regulatory nightmares.
Returning to the pre-2016 status quo, therefore, has gradually become more appealing to the masses. A host of polls taken in the two years since Labour were elected back into government show a stronger appetite for closer ties with the EU – and support for a second Brexit referendum is swelling.
According to an Ipsos survey published this week, those backing a second referendum outweigh those who are against it by 48% to 27% – and in the last five years, the percentage of people who feel Brexit ‘is not working out as expected’ has almost doubled.
‘The only policy which makes a meaningful difference to support’
These figures will likely be pricking ears at Labour HQ, as the sands of public sentiment continue to shift towards the EU. However, the pollsters have also calculated that offering a second referendum – and a chance to reverse Brexit – could be a major vote-winner for the party.
“Around 31% of those surveyed say they are likely to consider voting Labour at the next general election. But if Labour were to offer a second referendum in its manifesto, this rises to a 45% – the only EU policy pledge tested that makes a meaningful difference to the party’s support.”
“A referendum pledge raises the share who would consider Labour by a consistent 13-16 points among every group, even among likely Conservative voters (from 26% to 41%) and likely Reform UK voters (from 18% to 31%). Though majorities of both groups would still not consider voting Labour.” | IPSOS
Support for second Brexit referendum grows
Labour are currently middling in the opinion polls, routinely falling behind Reform and on occasion, both the Green Party and the Conservatives. Keiran Pedley, Research Director at Ipsos, predicts that this issue will become ‘more significant’ once Labour leadership contests kick-off.
“These findings show that there is significant public support for a closer relationship between the UK and EU – especially on matters of national security and defence – but as ever public attitudes are complex and Brexit continues to divide opinion.”
“On face value there is openness to greater alignment. What is also particularly striking from these findings is the warmth among Labour voters to closer ties – which may becomes a significant political issue as debates about the Labour leadership continue.” | Keiran Pedley