The theory that we’ve moved past ‘Peak Reform’ is being reinforced by pretty much every major electoral contest in 2026. After losing in Gorton and Denton, and then in Makerfield, Reform now look odds-on to fall short in the Manchester Mayor elections too.
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When is the vote for next Manchester Mayor?
New data from YouGov reveals the voting intention among 2,200 locals based in Greater Manchester, ahead of the crucial ballot to replace Andy Burnham on 30 July. Reform have vowed to throw the kitchen sink at the contest, in an attempt to beat Labour in their own backyard.
As it stands, that’s not going to happen. The survey shows that a hat-trick of defeats awaits the turquoise rosettes in the North West, and Labour’s Bev Craig – who serves as the leader of Manchester City Council – is in pole position to assume the role by the end of the month.
Reform struggling in North West… again
Labour are currently polling at 38%, holding a 14% lead over the Reform candidate Sian Astley. The Greens trail Reform by seven percentage points, and the Conservatives are on course to receive just 11% of the vote. Restore Britain’s pick, Marlon West, completes the top five with 7% of public support.
Though these results would still be enough to send Reform and Astley through to the second round, they are highly likely to finish a distant second behind Labour and Craig – with the latter projected to win a run-off between the two by 62% to 38%.
Amid their previous regional shortcomings this year, Reform also witnessed their General Election polling leads evaporate this month. One poll from Survation shows that they are now neck-and-neck with Labour on 23%, following an eight-point swing as Andy Burnham replaces Keir Starmer as PM.
Polls show Labour on course for decisive victory in Manchester Mayor race
These results are largely corroborated by another top pollster, with Opinium showing that the gap between Reform and a Burnham-led Labour Party has closed to just one point. This, amid a media storm regarding Nigel Farage and his dubious finances, is causing headaches for the right-wing organisation.
As it stands, the only localised election Reform look capable of winning is one where their main challenger has a bin on his head. And even that’s still somewhat up in the air. Never mind a peak… we may now be entering the ‘Reform fatigue’ phase of British politics.