The bookmakers have cut the odds on Labour to win the Makerfield by-election in recent days as Reform UK lose support in the market.
Ever since Josh Simons stepped down as Makerfield MP last month to give Andy Burnham a shot at a return to parliament, all eyes have been on the north-west constituency.
From the very start, the vote has been seen as a straight race between Labour and Reform, with Makerfield being a heavily pro-Leave constituency in which Nigel Farage’s party did very well at this year’s local elections.
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And whilst polling in the region has Burnham neck-a-neck with controversial Reform candidate Robert Kenyon, the bookies think the Greater Manchester mayor is pulling away.
Three weeks out from one of the most significant by-elections in decades, Labour’s odds of winning the seat have dropped to 7/20, according Oddschecker. This gives Burnham a 71% implied chance of winning, up by 11 points.
Meanwhile, Reform have slid out to 10/3, an implied chance of 22%, down by eight points.
This may well be down to how well Restore Britain are expected to do in the election, potentially stealing a significant number of votes from Reform.
Whilst Rupert Lowe’s hard-right party are talking up their chances of winning the seat, it seems unlikely they’ll pull off an almighty upset, as they sit at 14/1.
Some bookies are even more confident about Burnham’s chances in Makerfield though.
William Hill have Labour at 1/3 to win, down from 4/7 earlier this week. Reform held odds of 13/8 last weekend but has drifted out to 5/2 as of Thursday morning.
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Next month’s Makerfield by-election is already throwing up several twists and turns, with Andy Burham beginning to take control of our outright market.
“Labour are now the firm favourites at 1/3 to win the Greater Manchester seat, while Reform – who were 13/8 just last weekend – have drifted to 5/2.
“Part of Reform’s lost ground is attributable to Restore Britain’s presence in the betting, who have been cut from 10/1 to 8/1 in the past couple of days.”