If Nigel Farage wants to become prime minister, it looks like he’s going to have to overcome a huge amount of tactical voting from those opposed to a Reform government.
Reform no longer have a significant lead in the polls, with Labour having caught up with them, and even overtaken Reform in some polls, following a ‘Burnham bounce.’
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There’s even the prospect of a three-horse race at the next general election, as the Tories sit in third in many polls, often only within a couple of points of Labour and Reform.
And we can’t forget the strong support the Lib Dems and Greens have in parts of the country.
But whilst the polls show a fragmented political landscape, one thing could unite large parts of the electorate: their passionate opposition to Farage and Reform.
Whilst plenty of the British public are big fans of Reform, even more people are not, and this looks set to be a huge obstacle for the party and Farage at the next general election (whenever that may be).
A new survey has now revealed the extent of opposition there is in the country to Farage becoming PM.
A report from Hope Not Hate, based on polling by Survation, has found that 43% of Brits would be “unhappy” with Farage entering Number 10.
Of this 43%, 69% would be willing to vote tactically for whichever party is best-placed to stop a Reform candidate being elected in their constituency.
The risk for Reform here is laid bare by the fact that there are 95 “fragile Reform” seats across the country, according to Survation’s constituency-level MRP projection. These are seats where Reform are three percentage points or less ahead of their nearest rival.
There are a further 199 seats where Reform look set to win simply because of how split the opposition votes are. So, in these seats, a rally around one candidate to block Reform could also be enough to thwart them.
Nick Lowles, chief executive at HOPE Not Hate, said: “Whether it’s the Burnham bounce or the Farage flop taking effect, Reform UK is doing worse in the polls now than they were last year.
“At the same time, millions of voters across Britain are ready to vote tactically against Reform.
“Even Reform enthusiasts like Tim Montgomerie are warning that Reform is only strong when its opposition is divided.
“Our research shows that Montgomerie is right to worry: Reform’s opposition can close ranks around election time.
“Our job is to guide anti-Reform voters to back a party that will deliver Reform defeat.”