A penny for the thought of all those MPs, councillors, and political figures who jumped ship to join Reform within the last year or two. Not only is their popularity on the wane, but the party now appears to be facing a serious challenge to retain their own elected members.
A wave of resignations, suspensions, and even defections have hit Reform hard across various councils in recent months. In fact, the exodus began almost immediately after the dust had settled on May’s Local Elections, where they had performed well and gained more than 1,400 seats.
But it hasn’t taken long for ‘Reform Fatigue’ to set in, and following a summer of scandal, the party now finds itself on the backfoot – and many of their representatives have fallen by the wayside. It total, Reform has lost 41 of their councillors since 1 June – more than any other party in the UK.
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Reform ‘worse off’ after busy month of by-elections
At the start of November, Reform won two by-elections – and told the whole world about it.
Sarah Pochin, the MP elected by just six votes last year, was overjoyed with a victory on her doorstep. Zia Yusuf even went as far as to declare ‘we are so back’, when the teal rosettes claimed Worksop East in Nottinghamshire, and Beechwood & Heath in Runcorn.
However, these have only proved to be fleeting moments of joy for the party that, once upon a time, had a 12-point lead over Labour in the national polls. With that advantaged now fully evaporated, Reform are having to look elsewhere for their victories. Before this latest round, they had been starved.
Several attempts to win local contests have been thwarted by the presence of Restore Britain, competing in their first ever set of council elections. They have been accused of ‘splitting the vote’ in several wards, where their percentage share has been greater than the difference between Labour and Reform.
Local polling data aligning with national picture
In fact, over the last six weeks, Reform were on a miserable run. In the last 28 by-election races, the only two that they emerged victorious from happened within the last few days. And, not only has their momentum stalled – but there also appears to be something resembling regression.
Reform emerge as ‘only losers’ in by-election spree
In the 14 by-elections which saw seats change hands in October 2026, both the Labour and Conservatives are better off by two, after experiencing more gains than losses. The SNP and Plaid Cymru also increased their representation by one seat each, with the Lib Dems and Greens losing one and gaining one.
By contrast, Reform were the only party to see their representation shrink. Despite the two gains made in the last few days, they have lost control of five other regions since 1 October 2026 – making them an outlier among the seven most popular political outlets.
Significant results in Northumberland, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Leicestershire, and Dudley saw Reform lose direct head-to-heads against Labour. Meanwhile, voters in a ward of Robert Jenrick’s constituency opted to elect the Conservative candidate ahead of the Reform one.
Whatever you can read into these votes, they seem to be matching the mood music of the national opinion polls.