If stepping down from prime minister wasn’t enough, yesterday, Keir Starmer confirmed that he would be leaving his post as member of parliament for Holborn and St Pancras.
The former PM has taken the decision to fully step away from politics as he lets Andy Burnham take the ragged reins of the United Kingdom.
While Burnham cracks on with the job of being prime minister, Starmer vacating his seat means only one thing – yes, another by-election.
High-profile by-elections feel a little bit like buses, you wait for one and multiple come along at once.
Just this year alone, we’ve had politically important by-elections in Gorton and Denton which was won by the Greens, the Makerfield by-election which propelled Andy Burnham into the seat of power, and the circus of the Clacton by-election just last month.
However, this latest by-election feels rather reflective of Keir Starmer’s political career – coming to a tired end.
With Starmer stepping down in a prime London constituency, Green Party leader Zack Polanski is eyeing up the former PM’s seat, with it being reported that he is set to run in the by-election.
Of course, it wouldn’t be a by-election without a Count Binface appearance, although the intergalactic, caped crusader has not yet officially announced his participation, however, he has commented on the news.
Taking to X in the wake of Starmer’s resignation, Binface said: “Can’t get a moment’s peace on this bloody planet.”
However, without an official announcement of his participation, the current odds reflect only the established political parties.
So, without further ado, here’s what the bookmakers are saying as of time of writing:
- Labour @ 2/9
- Green Party @ 3/1
- Reform UK @ 33/1
- Restore Britain @ 50/1
- Conservatives @ 66/1
- Lib Dems @ 100/1
As per Betfred
- Labour @ 1/5
- Green Party @ 10/3
- Reform UK @ 50/1
- Restore Britain @ 80/1
- Conservatives @ 50/1
- Lib Dems @ 50/1
As per Skybet
- Labour @ 2/9
- Green Party @ 3/1
- Reform UK @ 40/1
- Restore Britain @ 150/1
- Conservatives @ 100/1
- Lib Dems @ 50/1
As per Bet365
The last results in the constituency
To give some kind of indication of the voting intention of the constituency of Holborn and St Pancras, we can look at the results from the 2024 general election.
Of course, these will be slightly skewed seeing as more well-known politicians, especially those leading the favourite party to win, are more likely to get a higher vote share.
For example, Keir Starmer won 18,884 votes in 2024 which translates to 48.9% of the vote share, a large win.
Independent candidate Andrew Feinstein came in second with 7,312 votes and a 18.9% vote share.
The Greens rounded out the top three with 4,030 votes and a 10.4% vote share.
While this might not seem like much, the Greens have massively increased in popularity, especially in London and will have their own high-profile leader standing, rather than standing against one.
So there appears to be hope for the Greens, although it’s sure Labour won’t go down without a fight.