Brexiteers, and well, Brits of all persuasions, might want to look away now. New research released this week has assessed the impact of Brexit on the UK economy, and it’s all so predictably bleak…
Brits ‘are already worse off’ after Brexit – report
The National Institute of Economic & Social Research (NIESR) have compared numbers from the years before Britain’s divorce from the EU, and the subsequent years afterwards. Since the transition period officially begun, UK GDP is estimated to be 3% LOWER as a result of Brexit.
Furthermore, these numbers calculate that the average British citizen is now £850 worse off as a result. The impact on households could intensify over the next decade, with the NIESR forecasting that the per-capita rate of loss could reach £2,300.
Those sunlit uplands never felt so far away
The group has modelled several macroeconomic factors affecting the UK economy, associated with the beginning of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) in 2021, coming to a number of stark conclusions:
- They have noted a substantial trade decline with the European Union, alongside an associated reduction in the UK terms of trade.
- An overall reduction in productivity has also been recorded
- On top of that, NIESR experts say there is now a ‘permanent reduction in the willingness to invest’ in the United Kingdom.
No Brexit benefits? Leaving the EU could cost each Brit ‘up to £2,300’
It makes for grim reading. The NIESR do accept that the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have contributed to some of the UK’s economic woes. But these numbers focus strictly on the Brexit impact, and it’s all rather sobering:
“Our estimates further suggest that three years after the transition period, UK real GDP is some 2-3% lower due to Brexit, compared to a scenario where the United Kingdom retained EU membership. This corresponds to a per capita income loss of approximately £850.”
“Furthermore, our estimates also indicate that the negative impact of Brexit gradually escalates, reaching some 5-6 per cent of GDP or about £2,300 per capita by 2035. Overall, the UK has experienced slower economic growth… following its exit from the European Union.” | NIESR