A by-election held in Dover this week produced a shock victory for the Green Party, despite all eyes being focused on the battle between Reform and Restore. This was the first local election contested by Rupert Lowe’s right-wing party, and it could have huge implications going forward.
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Dover by-election sees Restore split Reform vote
There was a relatively high turnout for the Guston, Kingsdown, and St Margaret’s-at-Cliff council vote, with almost half of the 5,000 eligible voters casting their ballots on Thursday. Local media reported a flurry of activity in the region, with scores of campaigners taking their case from door to door.
Though Restore were long-shots for an outright victory, they did set out to make an impression in their debut campaign. And if they were hoping to give Reform a bloody nose, they certainly delivered on that front. By claiming more than 10% of the vote, they seemingly scuppered Reform’s chances.
Ingrid Dodds, the Green Party candidate who also serves as a local GP and is well-known in the community, was announced as the winner, claiming 28.8% of public support. This put her 35 votes ahead of Reform candidate James Defriend, allowing the Greens to gain the seat from the Conservatives.
Had just 12% of those who voted for Restore switched to Reform, Mr. Defriend would have been crowned the victor. This spells trouble for the turquoise rosettes going forward, as it definitively shows that a mobilised Restore base has the ability to split the right vote and prevent Reform from winning.
Green Party claim narrow victory in ‘fight for the right’
It may be one local by-election for a council seat, but it’s indicative of many sub-plots currently unfolding in British politics. The support for the Tories has halved, and Labour have dropped to fourth place, affirming that the ‘big two’ still have a fight on their hands to compete with so-called ‘insurgent’ parties.
However, Reform’s open goal in Dover – a region synonymous with immigration and the small boats issue – has been denied by those on the right of the spectrum. It presents a fresh headache for the party and its leadership, with their national polling numbers also taking a hit in recent months.