Here at The London Economic, we have argued for some time that it is in the interest of the country that there should be an early election. The current government has no manifesto for its policies, is divided and the Tory party as a whole is locked in an internecine conflict worthy of The Godfather. While the Tories are navel-gazing the country is suffering from a recession and a cost of living crisis which is having a profound effect on everyone while the NHS seems to be falling apart before our eyes.
Yes, Rishi Sunak has now come out and specifically ruled out an election in May, which could sensibly have been held on the same day as the local and some mayoral elections. The obvious likely reason why is that they are behaving like a a gambler at at the craps table in the dog hours of the morning throwing away his last tenner on a roll of dice. He knows it probably isn’t going to work, but you never know, something might turn up.
However, as an increasing number of people are pointing out, it’s not a one-way roll of the dice. The gambler has a stop loss: the worst that can happen is he loses his tenner. But for Sunak, he should consider whether in delaying he is risking making things much worse for the Tories. Not better, but worse even than where they are today.
Back in the middle of last year, I mentioned to a cabinet minister that I thought they would be doing well to get one hundred seats at the next election. He dismissed it with a wave of the hand. For him there was rock-solid ground supporting at least two hundred seats. It was only a question of how many more than two hundred they would hang on to. I bet he would bite my hand off now if I could guarantee him one hundred and fifty seats, maybe one hundred.
This is the way first past the post works: increases, or as here decreases, in support can initially seem not to translate into massive changes in the number of seats. But it is not linear – the effect accelerates and decelerates as you hit clumps of seats with similar majorities. Which is why the effect of the numbers now being seen in the polls would be to eviscerate the Tory party in parliament down to twenty or so seats.
But something will come up they say, the polls always tighten.
Are you sure? These are not the laws of physics we are talking about. They rely on people to make decisions and I don’t see many people drifting towards the Tories at the moment to tighten any lead. And as for something turning up, lots of things are turning up. It’s just that they are all bad for the Tories, and like a gambler whose luck has dried up the worst thing you can do is keep rolling those dice.
Just think about the last week alone: Lee Anderson defects to Reform, a well-respected young defence minister quits with the lamest of excuses and then there is the Frank Hestor donations/racist comments scandal, which is still developing today as rumours of a further donation surface. Not only has it prompted the editor of Conservative Home to call for Sunak to go immediately, it provides both an illustration of his lack of political skill in the initial responses to the scandal, but going forward provides an insuperable challenge in that Sunak has no answer to the question “are you going to give the money back”.
In a final illustration of how when your luck is out it all goes wrong, this was supposed to be the week which was dominated by Gove’s policy announcements on extremism. Which he can’t even get to talk about properly as the first question he gets asked is whether Frank Hestor is an extremist. Their own policy announcement has been weaponised against them.
So I would advise Sunak and the Tories to have that moment of clarity, get up from the gaming table and walk away towards a general election. If all of the above can happen in one week, what’s going to happen over the coming weeks or months? Walk away now and call an election before there is no one left to vote for you.
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