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This is how the electoral map would look if by-election results are replicated nationally

"For a while now it’s been clear there’s a possibility of a Conservative wipe-out at the next election and a Labour wave", Lewis Goodall said.

Jack Peat by Jack Peat
2023-10-20 07:45
in News
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Labour has dealt a double by-election blow to Rishi Sunak by overturning huge Tory majorities in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.

Sir Keir Starmer claimed Labour was “redrawing the political map” by taking seats which had been comfortably Conservative ahead of the general election expected next year.

In Tamworth, Labour’s Sarah Edwards defeated Tory Andrew Cooper by a majority of 1,316.

The Conservatives were defending a 19,634 majority, but a 23.9 percentage point swing to Labour saw that eradicated.

The result, announced shortly at 2.45am, was the second-highest ever by-election swing to Labour.

Just half-an-hour later, there was even better news for Sir Keir as Mid Bedfordshire saw the largest majority overturned by Labour at a by-election since 1945.

Taking to social media, Carol Vorderman said Tory MPs sitting on up to a 15,000 vote majority will now “be very worried”.

LABOUR overturns huge majorities in TAMWORTH & MID BEDFORDSHIRE

Commentators now saying all Tory MPS sitting on up to a 15,000 vote majority will now be very worried…

So which Tory MPs would you like to see on that list and say a firm goodbye to at the General Election?

— Carol Vorderman (@carolvorders) October 20, 2023

And judging by this Election Maps, you can see why!

It finds that if the results of Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire were replicated nationally, the Tories would be left with just 20 seats at the next election, making them the UK’s fourth-largest party.

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🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨

How GB would vote if the Mid Bedfordshire By-Election swing was repeated across the country:

LAB: 480 (+284)
LDM: 104 (+96)
CON: 20 (-356)
SNP: 23 (-25)
PLC: 3 (+1)
GRN: 1 (=)

Labour Majority: 310
Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. pic.twitter.com/J1KraiYgZi

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) October 20, 2023

Although the map is a “only for fun” version of what could happen, Lewis Goodall says it has been clear for a while that Westminster has been “underpricing” the possibility of a Conservative wipe-out and a Labour wave.

“Too many looked at Uxbridge, not Selby”, he said:

What to say about Tamworth and Mid-Beds? Brief 🧵

For a while now it’s been clear there’s a chance Westminster has been underpricing the possibility of a Conservative wipe-out election and Lab wave. These results lend credit to that idea. Too many looked at Uxbridge, not Selby. https://t.co/SASq0zKY9K

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) October 20, 2023

Related: Andrew Cooper escapes through side door following historic by-election defeat

Tags: Labour Party

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