The latest polls have predicted the outcome of tomorrow’s London borough council elections and there are certainly some eye-catching results.
While, the local elections are a little harder to reliably poll because of its low voter turnout and thousands of seats up for grabs, data can still be presented to give an idea of how people intend on voting.
Local elections are a super important part of manifesting democracy in the UK, having the potential to affect politics on the smallest and largest scales.
More than just politics
Local elections don’t just decide whether your ward and council are red, blue, green, yellow or any other politically symbolic colour, but also have a direct impact on your community.
READ NEXT: Reform reckon the local elections are a vote to ‘get Starmer out’ – they aren’t
Councillors and their councils are responsible for a much larger number of services than people think, and actually are much more heavily involved than MPs often are in their communities.
Depending on the type authority, your council is responsible for everything from education, social services, waste disposal, planning, public security and trading standards – you know, the stuff that directly affects your everyday life.
This is ultimately why you pay money – council tax – to your local authority, because these are the people managing the services where you live.
Despite the importance of these matters, local elections have an incredibly poor turnout rate, just 34% in last year’s round.
Compare this to 59.7% (still the lowest since 2001) in the last general election, and it’s a bleak outlook for local democracy in the UK.
More than just local
While, of course, local elections have a direct impact on where you live, there is also a bigger picture.
Many use the local elections as a chance to protest against the current government, with Reform even arguing in their campaign that a vote for them could ‘get Starmer out.’
Whilst reports continue to swirl over whether a bad night for Labour could see Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge, it’s important to remember what you’re actually voting for this week – local government, not national.
Nevertheless, both Reform and the Greens look set to benefit massively from the anti-Labour sentiment across the nation.
What do the polls say?
There are around 5,000 seats up for election and about 60 councils projected to change hands, as per Poll Check.
The polling organisation say that when most of the seats up for election this year were last contested, Labour polled at 35%.
This has since dropped to 20%.
The biggest improvers are, of course, Reform UK and the Greens who have skyrocketed in popularity since the general election.
The London polls
Some of the biggest votes will take place in London, where all 32 boroughs are up for election.
Here, Labour could suffer their most damaging results. In a traditional stronghold for the party, they are predicted to lose 380 council seats and control of 13 councils.
At the same time, this could be where the Greens have their best night. They’re on course to win more than 300 council seats and gain control of their first even London councils in areas such as Hackney, Lewisham and Haringey.
Reform are expected to have success in east London, gaining control of three councils there, whilst the Tories could lose three councils.
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems’ heartland of south-west London will remain strong.
What about the rest of the country?
If the polls are to be trusted, Reform UK will be the big winners across England at the 2026 local elections.
Out of the around 5,000 seats up for grabs in this round, Poll Check predicts the most will be won by Reform with 1,477 seats, a gain of 1,408.
Meanwhile, Labour are predicted to finish second with 1,116. However, considering they’re defending 2,303 seats, this will be a massive loss of 1,187.
The Greens will make the second-largest gains, with their council seat total rocketing up by 455, from 184 to 639.
The Lib Dems are set for a 121-seat increase up to 828, whilst it will be a bad night for the Tories who look set to lose 563 seats, dropping to just 667.
With Labour’s collapse, a large number look set to become No Overall Control (NOC) while Reform could win as many as 10 councils.
As per Poll Check, Reform are predicted to control of nine councils, while 35 are set to turn NOC.
A large number of others are considered ‘battleground’ councils where it’s potentially too tight to call.
You can search the predicted results for your council using Poll Check’s website here.