Following a chaotic weekend for Labour, the upcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton is likely to be one of the most hotly contested in recent memory. With Andy Burnham ruled out of the running, the race is wide open – and the Green Party have emerged as the early favourites.
ALSO READ: Andy Burnham BLOCKED from running in by-election – what happens now?
Betting odds for Gorton and Denton by-election – January 2026
Just to get the disclaimers in straight away, these odds are subject to change – and will likely shift based on which candidates are fielded by their respective parties. However, three separate bookmakers have given the Greens a narrow advantage at this early stage.
The likes of Coral, Ladbrokes, and StarSports are all offering the same price across the board, putting a Green Party victory at 6/4. Reform are fractionally behind, coming in at 13/8. Despite Andrew Gwynne previously holding the seat for Labour, they’re out as third-favourites, at 2/1.
Spare a thought for the Conservatives in all this, mind. The right-leaning party hasn’t been given a snowball’s chance in hell, drifting out as far as 200/1 to pull of a seismic shock in Greater Manchester. Coral also have George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain (WPB) in there, with odds of 33/1.
Betting odds as of 00:01, Monday 26 January – Source: Oddschecker
Green Party listed as early favourites by bookies – but can it hold?
Given the recent resurgence of the Green Party and struggle of the Labour Party, the left-vote is likely to be split significantly in this constituency. Burnham, seen as a popular politician in the region, was blocked by Labour’s NEC from returning as an MP – and that could be a turn-off for voters.
Reform are also mulling the possibility of fielding a high-profile candidate in Gorton and Denton. Though rumours about Zia Yusuf’s candidacy have not been confirmed, it’s understood that former Rochdale MP Simon Danczuk has been approached to wear the light-blue rosette.
Green Party leader vows to ‘make hope normal again’
Zack Polanski has said that it is ‘hopeful to see’ the betting odds stacked in favour of the Greens. However, he has stressed the importance in understanding how these constituents vote, and believes that his party are the only ones equipped to beat Reform in this contest.