It looks like Robert Jenrick has brought a touch of that old ‘Tory electability’ over to Reform, following his dramatic defection to the right-wing upstarts last week. Some seven days after swapping his shade of blue, the former government minister may well be getting that sinking feeling once more.
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Robert Jenrick joins Reform – but there’s no ‘Bobby Bounce’
A poll released by Focal Data this week surveyed the public between 16-19 January – the first few days AFTER Jenrick was sacked by the Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch. He was unveiled by Reform just a few hours later, with Nigel Farage and his colleagues hailing an apparent coup.
Broad trends in recent weeks have shown a substantial slump in support for Reform, across several major pollsters. After routinely fetching above 30% of public backing throughout large parts of 2025, that figure has started tumbling – and this new survey shows the exact same pattern.
Yet another pollster puts Reform on a downward slope
Comparing to Focal Data’s last voting intention poll in November, Reform are again on the slide. They’re down by three percentage points, dropping to 26%. In fact, their nine-point advantage over Labour has been slashed to just five, after the governing party made some slight gains.
There’s also a slight swell of support for the Tories, whose support has increased by two percentage points, putting them on 20%. Though the Greens appear to have lost ground and fallen back to 10%, the Liberal Democrats are on the up, edging their figure to 14%.
The waters are certainly getting choppier for Reform. Within the last few months, they’ve faced a number of scandals, ranging from Nathan Gill’s Russian influence to allegations of racism levelled against Nigel Farage by his former schoolmates. But these latest wounds may be self-inflicted.
No honeymoon period for Robert Jenrick
Robert Jenrick is joining Reform at a time where the party stands accused of stuffing their ranks with ‘failed Tories’, and politicians who were part of a system that truly let the public down. The optics may not look so glittering for the Newark MP, or the party in general.
With a General Election still three years away, Reform will be wary about peaking too soon. Some, however, suggest those wheels are now in motion…
Concerns over immigration drop – and it may be a problem for Reform
Patrick Flynn of Focal Data believes that ‘issue salience’ is behind the fall in support for Reform. He cites a 14% drop in the number of respondents who say immigration is ‘one of the most important issues’ from their last poll – which, in turn, has a negative impact on the party’s relevancy.
“Reform’s decline may in part reflect a shift in issue salience. Immigration and asylum, long a key driver of support for the party, appear to have become less prominent in voters’ minds, as global events have dominated the news agenda in recent weeks.”
“In this survey, 35% of respondents cited immigration and asylum as one of the most important issues facing the country, down from a peak of 49% in mid-November, when we first began measuring issue salience. Concern about international affairs also increased.” | Patrick Flynn