Bloody hell, it’s all going wrong at Conservative HQ. The Tories will now have to contest FOUR by-elections this summer, after another MP resigned from his position this weekend. Accused of sexual misconduct, David Warburton decided to step down on Saturday.
Who is the latest Tory MP to resign?
He represents the constituency of Somerton and Frome, in Somerset. He swept to a 19,000-seat majority in 2019, earning 55% of the vote. Even with the sleaze and scandal surrounding the ruling party, this type of lead may seem unassailable at first.
However, once a few numbers have been crunched, that huge majority soon withers. The team at Election Maps UK estimate that the Tories have almost blown a 30-point lead in S&F, and if the by-election was held today, they’d only lead by eight points.
Who is likely to win the by-election in Somerton and Frome?
As far as the electoral experts are concerned, that’s still not enough to keep the seat blue. They believe that tactical voting will play a huge role in this particular ballot, even going as far as to suggest that the Liberal Democrats are ‘dead certs’ to win this by-election.
Liberal Democrats branded ‘dead certs’ to win Somerset by-election
Encouragingly for the Liberal Democrats, they also have history on their side. The Somerton and Frome constituency was run by the party between 1997 to 2015, and that local affinity remains in place. Furthermore, they’ve enjoyed a few large voting swings in recent by-elections.
In North Shropshire, Tiverton and Honiton, and Chesham and Amersham, Lib Dem candidates recorded swings of 25% or more during the last local votes. The UK’s third largest political party would require a much lower shift in public opinion to claim this now-vacant seat.
Lib Dem candidate backed for victory
Sarah Dyke will go up against whichever candidate the Tories put forward. She’s the Environment Lead Member for Somerset Council. Should the Lib Dems win this battle, it’ll create a summer of discontent for the Conservatives.
Somerton and Frome joins Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty, and Mid Bedfordshire on the list of regions facing a by-election in the weeks ahead. As a result, Tory seats vacated by Boris Johnson, Nigel Adams, and (potentially) Nadine Dorries are also at risk of being taken by opposition parties