It now seems inevitable that within a matter of weeks we will see Reform dislodged from their perch at the top of the polls.
Over the last couple of weeks, a number of polls have shown that ‘peak Reform’ has made way for what we’re dubbing ‘Reform fatigue.’
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The latest polling from YouGov has seen yet another drop in support for Reform, who have fallen by one point to 23%.
And whilst Labour were up by a point on the week before, rising to 20%, they aren’t in second. Instead, it’s Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party who are closest to overhauling Reform in the polls, jumping by two points to 21%.
As YouGov pointed out though, both Labour and the Tories are within the margin of error of Reform, the first time this has been the case in over a year.
This latest poll also took place shortly before Andy Burnham officially replaced Keir Starmer as prime minister.
Now that we know Burnham’s cabinet and are starting to hear some of his government’s policies, it will remain to be seen what impact this has on the polls.
Whether the polling trend of recent weeks is down to a ‘Burnham bounce’ or the controversy swirling around Reform and Nigel Farage is up for debate. The likely answer is a bit of both.
But we now must consider a third factor – the return of the Tories.
Quietly, the Conservatives have edge up behind Reform and, as in this poll, overtaken Labour. Whilst polling in the low twenties is far from where the Tories would historically like to be, it’s far more positive than the doldrums the party were in in the wake of the 2024 general election.
At the same time, polling shows that Kemi Badenoch has the highest approval rating of any major leader party leader at the moment.
With Labour now led by Burnham and the Tories seemingly winning back the support and confidence of parts of the electorate, perhaps the question isn’t when Reform will drop to second in the polls, but whether or not they’ll slip to third.
