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Labour lead RISES in first poll since Andy Burnham’s conference speech

Andy Burnham made his first conference speech as Labour leader this week - which seems to have gone down well with the public.

Tom by Tom
2026-10-04 12:24
in Politics
labour polling
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Andy Burnham said he was going to ‘grasp the nettle’ on several difficult issues facing the country ahead of his Party Conference speech earlier this week, making bold promises about pensions and future relationships with the EU. And, according to a new poll, the gamble appears to have paid off.

ALSO READ: Reform attack Burnham’s plans to scrap triple lock – even though they agree with them

Conference Speech a winner for Andy Burnham, as Labour support increases

Research carried out by Opinium, immediately after Burnham’s bold address, surveyed over 1,500 British adults, asking who they would vote for if a General Election were to take place tomorrow. And, for the first time in almost two years, support for Labour reached the 30% mark.

The data, compared with responses from a week before, shows a two-percentage point increase for Labour, increasing their lead over Reform by a point. The gap between the pair has extended to five percentage points – and appears to be consistent with several other recent surveys.

🚨 Latest Opinium @ObserverUK poll 🚨

Labour hits 30% for the first time since November 2024, opening up a 5-point lead over Reform.

🌹 LAB 30% (+2)
➡️ REF 25% (+1)
🌳 CON 17% (n/c)
🌍 GRN 11% (+1)
🔶 LD 9% (-1) pic.twitter.com/gA5ewIRiSb

— Opinium (@OpiniumResearch) October 3, 2026

Labour establish clear lead over Reform, as PM sets out bold agenda

Pollsters including Find Out Now, Survation, and BMG Research all have Labour leading Reform by four-to-six points. More In Common also have Reform down in third place, pipped to second by the Conservatives. However, this data appears to be an outlier as it stands.

The reversal in fortunes over the past 12 months has been stark, with Reform dipping from a peak of 35% to now ambling around the low-to-mid twenties. Labour were also on a similar trajectory, but have enjoyed a substantial uptick in support since Andy Burnham became PM.

Further numbers shared by Opinium this weekend show that Burnham’s speech itself was a winner, with those who thought it was good outnumbering those who thought it was bad, in a vote share of 37% to 17%. However, there is one issue which may still prove to be contentious.

The Prime Minister signalled his intention to remove the triple lock from the state pension. Long seen as a barrier to growth in other parts of the economy, critics have accused the former Manchester Mayor of risking financial security for the elderly – as reflected by the response from the 65+ demographic.

🚨 Latest Opinium @ObserverUK poll 🚨

The pension triple lock could prove the trickier part of Burnham’s conference offer.

Voters are divided on whether changing the triple lock is a fair trade-off for a new National Care Service.

And among over-65s, 46% say it's unfair. pic.twitter.com/hUj01O1oDg

— Opinium (@OpiniumResearch) October 3, 2026

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Labour claim double by-election gain from Reform

Tags: Andy Burnham

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