Speculation about a spring general election is rife after Jeremy Hunt announced his next budget will be set out on March 6th.
The Chancellor has commissioned the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to prepare an economic and fiscal forecast to be presented to Parliament alongside the budget next year.
The Tories have been dropping hints they could make attention-grabbing pledges on housing and taxes as Rishi Sunak struggles to turn around his party’s major deficit in the polls.
Housing Secretary Michael Gove suggested to the Times that the Conservatives will promise to cut the up-front cost of a home for first-time buyers in a pre-election giveaway.
And the Prime Minister has ordered a “gear change” to reduce the historically high tax burden, possibly slashing death duties and reducing income tax, according to the Telegraph.
But it is yet to be seen whether the changes will cut through with the electorate.
According to the latest end-of-year predictions, the Conservatives are on track to shed 227 seats at the next election, leaving them with just 149 seats in the House of Commons.
The Lib Dems are predicted to pick up 35 seats while Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party are expected to grab a whopping majority with 412 seats.
The ‘Nowcast’ model is based on recent GB wide polling, as well as Scottish & Welsh only polling.
Data is from all published polls from British Polling Council members over a given month, with polls weighted by recency as well as historic pollster accuracy.
These GB-wide numbers, as well as recent national and regional polls, are then run through the model and some corrections may be applied for seats with unique circumstances e.g. by-election results or a scandal surrounding the incumbent.
It is important to remember that the Nowcast indicates how a General Election would look if an election were to be held today, not in a few months or years time. It is not a prediction for the next election, rather a snapshot of public opinion at the time of publishing.
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