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Reform UK polling lead slashed as Greens overtake Labour

Has Reform's support topped out?

Charlie Herbert by Charlie Herbert
2026-03-02 15:08
in Politics
Reform UK polling lead slashed as Greens overtake Labour
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New polling data has seen Reform’s lead at the top slashed to just two points, as the party’s support continues to stall.

According to the latest data from Lord Ashcroft‘s polling outlet, Reform are on 22%, a considerable drop on the high twenties they’ve been at in most of the polls for the last few months.

Just two points behind them are the Tories, whilst the Greens sit in third on 19%, two points clear of Labour.

The polling was taken in the period from the 19th to the 23rd of February, so before the Greens’ by-election win in Gorton and Denton.

READ NEXT: Farage labelled ‘sore loser’ as he announces plans to restrict who can vote in elections

🗳️ POLL | Reform lead by 2pts

➡️ Ref: 22% (-3)
🔵 Con: 20% (-1)
🟢 Grn: 19% (+1)
🔴 Lab: 17% (-1)
🟠 Lib: 11% (=)

— Seats —
➡️ Ref: 216
🔵 Con: 140
🟢 Grn: 87
🟠 Lib: 74
🟡 SNP: 44
🔴 Lab: 40

Poll: @LordAPolls, 19-23 Feb (+/- vs 19 Feb) pic.twitter.com/hwRSauTIW1

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) March 2, 2026

This is the latest poll to suggest that after months of riding high, Reform’s popularity has topped out and is even declining.

Whilst they are still leading the polls, this latest data would leave the party well short of a majority according to modelling.

And in this scenario, Reform’s only route to government would be if the Conservatives want to go into coalition with them, something they have shown little sign of wanting to do at any level.

Polling like the above is also further proof that Zack Polanski’s Greens show no signs of going away, and are a very real threat to Labour’s left.

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Although it’s likely Labour MPs and their supporters need no further evidence to prove this after their Gorton and Denton defeat to the Greens.

Tags: Reform UK

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