It is an unusual year in the Championship, not least because the three sides relegated from the Premiership last season can each be described as a “big club”.
Not Liverpool perhaps, but they are famous old clubs with a long history and certainly do not fit into the “yo-yo” category. By contrast two of the three sides that went up were not such big hitters.
The inevitable result has been that Leeds, Leicester and Southampton are engaged in a deathly fight for automatic promotion. But three into two does not go, and with the astonishing performance of Ipswich following their promotion from League One, it has turned into a four into two battle. So who do I think will come out on top? As we head into the business end of the season, here is my prediction, in order, for the top four:
I am a bit nervous about putting Leeds United first – as in full disclosure I am a Leeds fanatic and the superstitious part of me thinks I am jinxing the result by doing so. We may be singing “Leeds are falling apart again” ironically at the moment, but having been going to games for over 30 years I know that this can change.
However, on the facts, Leeds is on the most extraordinary and long-lived run. Having dropped a lot of points at the beginning of the season when it seemed that the team was on the point of implosion, they have steadily and determinedly fought to the top. 37 points out of 39 since the turn of the year says it all. As does home and away wins against Leicester and Ipswich, with one of the few losses this season being away to Southampton, but Elland Road is a fortress and Leeds has Southampton at home for the last game of the season.
Indeed it is perhaps that 3-1 win at home against Leicester which will come to define this season. 0-1 down with ten minutes to go they won the match 3-1 in an evening that most Leeds fans will never forget.
They have astonishing depth in attack: the magic feet of Sommerville, Dan James finally showing not just speed but deadly finishing, a wily pro in Piroe, the big smile and clinical finishes of a now happy Willy Gnonto and a thoroughly rejuvenated and precise Patrick Bamford. All marshalled by Leeds player of the season so far, the completely outstanding Georginio Rutter. Then nailed on future England player Archie Gray and the brick wall central Welsh central defence pairing of Ampadou and Rodon.
Which is not to diminish the quality and effort of the other players. The list is just too long. This side is far too good to be playing in the Championship. Leeds just needed a manager who knows how to win this league, and if there is a better one out there than Daniel Farke I’d like to know who it is. Dare I say it, I think this is the team who will win the Championship this year.
Well, who would have thought that the Tractor Boys would be challenging for automatic promotion in their first season back in the Championship? East Anglia must be pinching itself.
Go back only a few years and the third defeat in Cook’s first five games left Ipswich two points adrift of the play-offs as Porstmouth leapt past them into seventh place in League One.
Today they sit a point behind leaders Leeds and second-placed Leicester and are in a great position to secure promotion back to the Premier League. Cab Kieran McKenna pull it off.
Recent results are superb, an away loss at Cardiff aside, and speak of a side in peak form and with that crucial element, momentum. They range from the 6-0 demolition of Sheffield Wednesday to the two dramatic last-minute winners against Bristol and Birmingham. This is a side that has the mettle to battle adversity and win ugly or win beautiful, whatever it takes. Their run-in also does not seem too bad, with perhaps their banana skin game coming away against Hull on 27th April.
Their weakness? McKenna has largely kept the League One team and improved them rather than replacing them in the transfer market, which reminds me of Bielsa’s early days at Leeds. In that team are some great players like Marcus Harness and Leif Davis, but the difference has really come with the arrival of Kieffer Moore on loan from Bournemouth, and also not to overlook the acquisition of fellow striker Ali Al-Hamadi from AFC Wimbledon. This has produced seven wins from eight. An injury to either, and Moore in particular, would change everything, but if they stay fit – and it really is a very important IF, I think Ipswich have the momentum and then punch to take the second automatic promotion spot.
While it may be a surprise that Ipswich are in the running for automatic promotion, it would have been even more so to anyone looking at the table on New Year’s Day to be told that Leicester might not get an automatic promotion. Leicester had just thrashed Norwich 4-1 to go ten points clear at the top of the table, while the two other clubs then in contention, Ipswich and Southampton, could each only manage a draw. Leeds had won a game (after a dreadful set of results over Christmas) but were some distance behind.
From there to here is quite a shift, and I think psychologically that’s a difficult place to be. Hence the numerous interviews over recent weeks where players have said they are “not worried” about their league position. You don’t have to be a genius to work out that the only people who say they are not worried are the ones that are worried. A more convincing would have been for someone to say “Yes, we are bloody scared, but we are going to do something about it”
Then look at their results in March: two losses (to be fair one against Chelsea in the FA Cup, one draw and one win. That’s not automatic promotion form. Second, they have one more match to fit in during an already crowded set of run-in fixtures. Third, they have some real banana skin matches coming up: away to Millwall and Plymouth spring to mind. Finally, the points deduction issue. However unfair on Leicester this is – and I think it is completely outrageous – it cannot help but weigh on players’ minds, not least because it may mean the club has to offload some at the end of the season promotion or not.
On the other side of the balance sheet, Leicester is a great city, the Foxes are a great club, playing in front of great fans in a great stadium with a great team that on any neutral analysis should not be in the Championship. Also, the international break may have come at the right time to break the downward momentum and the points deduction issue may have the effect of bringing the team together in adversity.
If that’s right then they’ll get out of this hole. But I just don’t think so. The last ten minutes against Leeds seemed to take the stuffing out of them. It’s a close call this, but I just think Leeds and Ipswich will hold the Foxes off.
In February and early March, there was a lot of inane chatter among commentators (all of whom, I should add, are better qualified to opine on football than me) about how Southampton were the form team and was the one who might even challenge Leicester. But that never felt right to me. I looked at the results and saw a team whose best form lay back in 2023, not at the business end in 2024.
January had gone well with thumping defeats of Wednesday and Swansea, and February started well, but then the mid-February blues hit. At the same time as they were being hailed as potential champions, they lost away to Bristol and at home to Hull and Millwall. Three losses and three wins (including that epic 5-3 win against Huddersfield). Not relegation form but definitely not promotion form either. In March they have regained a bit of form, but have ended up last in the pack and, crucially in my view, face the least welcome final day six-pointer that you can imagine: away to Leeds.
They are also miles behind Leeds and Leicester on goal difference – 26 against 42 and 41 respectively, so you have to add another point to the nine they would need to get even with Leeds. With the most congested fixture list of any of the contenders, this just feels like too big a hill to climb. I think they will finish fourth.
This one is not for today, and the field is quite large with top clubs like West Bromwich Albion, Norwich and Coventry in the race. But I have a feeling that Hull will not only squeak into the play-offs in sixth place (alongside West Brom in fifth). I also think that through sheer exuberance and delight Hull will go the whole way and win promotion.
So, Leeds, Ipswich and Hull – that’s my prediction for promotion.
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