Sport is meant to provide definitive answers, to be a zero-sum game. There is always meant to be a winner and loser. Yet, as England and Australia prepare to meet at the Oval for the final Ashes test, a drawn series is a distinct possibility. Despite rain washing out the 4th test at Old Trafford, England were definitively on top of that game and would have won given the full 5 days. Instead, Australia’s men lead the series 2-1, with one game to play, and will retain the Ashes come what may in south London this week.
This will be the first series that England have not won in the reign of Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum. It is the first time the swashbuckling approach which they have pursued has come under question, this test feels like a definitive moment. Either England continue their momentum and level a tight series, or they lose 3-1 in a series they could easily have won.
In the bigger picture, beyond this series, this is also a team in transition. Whilst there are several reasons to be positive, there are multiple reasons why this could be the beginning of a difficult transition for the team, and a bumpy ride for the leadership.
For years, England’s batting was the men’s test team’s Achilles heel. With no recognised opening pair since Alistair Cook and Andrew Strauss retired, a perennial debate over who should bat number 3 and multiple batters more suited to batting at 7 than 5, they would frequently turn victory into defeat through catastrophic batting collapses.
Roll the clock forward to today and they now have a line up which is beginning to take shape. Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley have both shown throughout this series that they are capable of opening the batting successfully against high class bowling. Crawley has broken the feast or famine cycle he found himself in, finding a way to regularly contribute between his dazzling centuries.
Ollie Pope will return at 3, as the side’s vice-captain, with Joe Root continuing to score big at 4. Harry Brook continues to impress and with Jonny Bairstow finding his form, England have a destructive line up capable of scoring big runs.
In the bowling ranks, Matthew Potts’ performances last summer, followed by the emergence of Josh Tongue this summer proves that there is hope for life after James Anderson and Stuart Broad. Rehan Ahmed’s performance over the winter also showed that England have a highly talented spinner who just needs time to develop. If they get this right, he can be a huge asset going forward.
Despite the emergence of Potts, Tongue and Ahmed, England’s bowling attack is entering a period of change unseen since the mid 2000’s, when Broad and Anderson emerged on the scene. It is not just Stuart Broad and James Anderson, whose 1289 test wickets puts them 5th and 3rd on the list of all-time leading test wicket takers, who will need to be replaced in the near future.
Chris Woakes, long seen as the natural replacement for Anderson with the new ball, is now 34 years old. Mark Wood, whose return to the team has electrified this English bowling attack, is 33 years old and has struggled with injuries throughout his career. Both Wood and Woakes are nearing the latter stages of their career, meaning England could lose 4 of their premier fast bowlers in the coming years.
The return of Moeen Ali also highlighted the paucity of international standard spinners in the English game. The injury to Jack Leach blew a hole in England’s plans and it was fortunate that they were able to convince a spinner of the quality and experience of Ali to come out of retirement. Ali has stated this week that the game at the Oval will be his last test match, which means England will go into a winter where they travel away to India without a recognised 2nd spinner with significant international experience. It is a lot to ask of a teenager with limited experience, such as Rehan Ahmed, to take on a team as formidable as India on their home turf.
This brings us to arguably the largest question facing England in the next 12 months. At various points this summer, Ben Stokes has looked like he is a stiff breeze from losing a limb. He has well documented knee trouble, which has prevented him from playing a meaningful role as England’s fourth seamer this summer.
Stokes has spoken openly about his desire to retain his role as the all rounder within the team. The question is, will his body allow him to do so? England desperately need a fully fit Stokes to provide balance to the team. When Stokes has been unable to bowl this summer, England have been forced to field a team with a long tail, often seeing Stuart Broad at number 8. If this team aspires to become the number one test team in the world, they need a stronger lower order than that.
Stokes spoke about taking the next 6 months to get his knee right and to allow him to play this role fully. If he can do so, England’s future looks a lot brighter, if he can’t then it will blow a hole in their planning. England have so often relied upon their talisman to get them out of trouble with the ball, as well as the bat, they will hope to be able to do so for a few years to come.
Overall, this paints a mixed picture of the future of England’s test team. It is an old cliché in cricket that a strong batting lineup can put you in a strong position, but you can’t win test matches without a strong bowling attack. England stand on the verge of losing thousands of wickets through impending retirements.
When he took over the job as captain, Stokes spoke of needing to stop planning for a future that may never come. England should stop resting Broad and Anderson, and get back to winning the next test match. While that advice has worked so far, and England must win the next test match if they are to draw this series, the time may have come again to start planning again. If they fail to do so, they are faced with the challenge of replacing the irreplaceable, with no plan B.
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