A by-election held in Dover this week produced a shock victory for the Green Party, despite all eyes being focused on the battle between Reform and Restore. This was the first local election contested by Rupert Lowe’s right-wing party, and it could have huge implications going forward.
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There was a relatively high turnout for the Guston, Kingsdown, and St Margaret’s-at-Cliff council vote, with almost half of the 5,000 eligible voters casting their ballots on Thursday. Local media reported a flurry of activity in the region, with scores of campaigners taking their case from door to door.
Though Restore were long-shots for an outright victory, they did set out to make an impression in their debut campaign. And if they were hoping to give Reform a bloody nose, they certainly delivered on that front. By claiming more than 10% of the vote, they seemingly scuppered Reform’s chances.
Ingrid Dodds, the Green Party candidate who also serves as a local GP and is well-known in the community, was announced as the winner, claiming 28.8% of public support. This put her 35 votes ahead of Reform candidate James Defriend, allowing the Greens to gain the seat from the Conservatives.
Had just 12% of those who voted for Restore switched to Reform, Mr. Defriend would have been crowned the victor. This spells trouble for the turquoise rosettes going forward, as it definitively shows that a mobilised Restore base has the ability to split the right vote and prevent Reform from winning.
It may be one local by-election for a council seat, but it’s indicative of many sub-plots currently unfolding in British politics. The support for the Tories has halved, and Labour have dropped to fourth place, affirming that the ‘big two’ still have a fight on their hands to compete with so-called ‘insurgent’ parties.
However, Reform’s open goal in Dover – a region synonymous with immigration and the small boats issue – has been denied by those on the right of the spectrum. It presents a fresh headache for the party and its leadership, with their national polling numbers also taking a hit in recent months.
