Politics

Bombshell MRP poll puts Tories on track for biggest election defeat in history

The Conservatives are on track for an electoral defeat unlike anything seen in the history of British politics.

A new bombshell survey of 18,000 people conducted by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus has projected that Rishi Sunak will be left with just 80 MPs if there was a vote tomorrow.

A whopping 17 cabinet ministers would be among the casualties, including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan and Mel Stride.

Jacob Rees-Mogg would also lose his seat, as would Lee Anderson and Jonathan Gullis.

The poll puts Sir Keir Stamer on track for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997.

According to the numbers, Labour has 42 per cent support giving it a 20-point lead over the Conservatives on 22 per cent.

Voters said they believed health, the economy and immigration were the most important issues facing the country. Nationalising utility companies and building more homes were among most popular potential election policies.

Over the past three weeks, the pollsters surveyed 18,151 people – which is nine times as many as a typical poll. The MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method – that successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections – was then used to project what this would mean in individual constituencies.


Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “The public seem even more disenchanted with the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak than they were with John Major in 1997.

“A Labour landslide looks increasingly likely, and Labour voters want nationalisation, increased public spending and higher taxes.

“The next election could have a seismic impact on British politics as the recent Conservative era crashes to a close.”

A General Election has to take place by next January at the latest, although Sunak is expected to either hold one in May or the Autumn.

Find Out Now interviewed 18,151 adults in Britain online between January 24 and February 12.

Related: John McDonnell responds to claims he should be kicked out of the Labour Party

Jack Peat

Jack is a business and economics journalist and the founder of The London Economic (TLE). He has contributed articles to VICE, Huffington Post and Independent and is a published author. Jack read History at the University of Wales, Bangor and has a Masters in Journalism from the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

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