QuotedData’s Economic round up – July 2018 is a collation of recent insights on markets and economies taken from the comments made by chairmen and investment managers of investment companies – have a read and make your own minds up. Please remember that nothing in this note is designed to encourage you to buy or sell any of the companies mentioned. Kindly sponsored by Polar Capital.
July Economic and Political Roundup
The tit-for-tat imposition of tariffs on imports by the US, EU and China unnerved markets in June. Emerging markets were particularly weak, the MSCI Emerging Market Index fell by 3.9% over the month. Chinese markets were hit by falls in the value of large, highly-rated technology stocks. In Europe, nerves were set on edge in May by the Italian political situation. This seems to have resulted in a flight to German bunds, whose yields fell sharply over the month.
Uncertainty persists but some investors believe that it is uncovering opportunities.
The managers of global and multi-asset funds all appear to agree that the world economy has come to the final phase of the economic cycle that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. Many see the macroeconomic environment as very hard to call; rising interest rates, high valuations, political risks are creating uncertainty. The managers of Capital Gearing Trust warn that equities and bonds currently trade at such high valuations that medium term returns are likely to be lower than those enjoyed historically, and in a number of cases negative after adjusting for inflation.
James Ferguson, chairman of Monks, raises elevated valuations as one of the chief concerns currently facing markets. On the other hand, there appears to be an abundance of growth opportunities from across a range of economies and new and fast changing technologies.