Could a Remain coalition oust the big two in the next General Election?

A cross party coalition between the Liberal Democrats, SNP and newly-formed Independent Group could stand a chance of ousting the big two for the first time in modern British political history at the next General Election if they campaign on a Remain ticket. 

Early indications suggest the Independent Group and Liberal Democrats would account for more than 20 per cent of the vote if an election was held tomorrow. Added to the 35 SNP MPs currently sitting in parliament it lays the foundations for a potential majority in parliament at the current momentum.

The chances of a Remain coalition becoming a Commons success will become clear over the next month. If a No Deal outcome becomes even a slight possibility then it has a strong chance. If Article 50 is extended and a General Election takes place before Brexit is delivered then it could also find a way in, assuming Labour and Conservatives continue to toe their current party line.

According to the latest reports, Theresa May is facing the prospect of up to 100 of her own MPs, including 25 ministers, rebelling against her if she cannot secure a Brexit deal ahead of crunch votes expected on Wednesday. If Independent Group numbers swell by a significant amount, then Remain politicians from both sides of the divide will be more likely to consider their own positions and the prospect of backing a viable new party.

Of course, it’s worth noting that the Conservatives currently face a split on two fronts. While centrist MPs jump ship to join the Independent Group, those on the far right are also considering a breakaway too.

A pro-Leave party has been registered to contest the next European parliament elections should Brexit be delayed and Britain be allowed to field candidates. Jeremy Hosking, the multimillionaire financier who backed a series of pro-Brexit Tory candidates at the last election, has also said that he has submitted the paperwork to form a new party dubbed the Brexit Express which would welcome Tory MPs wanting to protest should the prime minister “botch Brexit”.

With the number of politicians representing the big two facing a significant haircut it could pave the path for a pro-Remain coalition of parties to triumph in the next election. It’s early days still and there is much to be decided, but if everything falls into place, you heard it here first.

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