Leaked document shows ‘secret’ government studies into impact of ‘hard’ Brexit

A leaked document has revealed secret government studies into the impact of a hard Brexit, with the Department of Health finding the NHS could be hit by a shortage of more than 40,000 nurses by 2026.

Union GMB has appealed to the government to release the data, asking “what else has Theresa May got to hide?” after a whistleblower revealed the findings.

There are thought to be dozens of impact assessments already carried out by the Government into its chosen course of leaving not just the EU, but the single market and customs union.

Not one has been published.

A recent opinion poll by GMB revealed a majority (55 per cent) want their Government to publish its impact assessments on what it thinks could happen to different industries and parts of the UK economy through its Brexit plans.

Tim Roache, GMB General Secretary, said: “Brexit isn’t a game – people’s livelihoods and futures are at stake.

“The Prime Minister seems to be intentionally keeping people in the dark in her quest to leave the single market and customs union.

“The Government must publish their secret impact assessments as soon as possible so people know what’s in store and what the government is putting at risk.

“Public services, unions and government need to plan for the future, we can’t do that when the government is hiding so much information from everyone.

“People are going to start to ask what the Prime Minister has to hide – the government needs to come clean.”


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22 Responses

  1. All the older population will know what it will be like because we were the people that lived pre the EU.
    The UK had , ‘them and us ‘ no holidays as such, poor wages/salaries working long hours. Then of course along came Thatcher , she was the Tory MP that stopped the school milk prior to becoming the Elected PM. When she did, so you can imagine what happened when in her elevation she commenced to Close down or sell anything and everything because ‘it was cheaper to import it’,
    Her rationale regarding the NHS was ‘ introducing non medical staff as managers, accountants etc, where there was Domestic Services allied to Hospitals , she brought in outside interest.THEN she proceeded to close Mental Health , Fever, Children’s Wards . Nurses training is another example of the Tory thinking, where there was a College of Nursing that trained Nurses , she decide that University ‘s were better, nothing wrong with that except that not all young people want a degree , they want a job with skills, and Nursing is an ongoing learning process wherein working , participating at a work level environment, impacts with Students , apprenticeships , factories, shops etc. This is what is wrong now, if you don’t. go to High School, university, you are deemed under-educated or worse.
    We also had Married Women working , PartTime not allowed to pay a full stamp , I whom had worked 30+years was told that my Pension would be 69pence a week, but thanks to the EU all working 30hours pw would be classed as full time and holidays pro rata …. This is just a wee taster of what’s. going to happen.I hope this UK sees sense soon

    1. José Miguel Figueroa

      Not that I disagree, but if the older generations knew how it was, then why did they overwhelmingly voted to leave the EU?

      1. Dave Blair

        I don’t know about others in my age group, but I’m guessing that it’s easier for some to remember what was good about the 60s and 70s – most of the older generation were children or teens then and didn’t have to suffer the brunt of the UK’s economic situation. They had other interests, like being cool and rebellious while learning the Charts off by heart. Which would make Brexit something like a mass collective mid-life crisis.

        The more I think about it the more it actually feels like that.

        1. afurada

          As someone who was working and bring up small children in the late 60s and during the 70s, what I remember were mainly positive things. We didn’t have a lot of money (didn’t need that much) but we had a society that exuded hope and endless possibilities. It was a ‘can do’ time that got us through some of the practical problems. We also had sound institutions – clubs, societies, unions, self-supporting communities that seem to have all but disappeared thanks, mainly, to the Thatcher years.

          There is nothing about Brexit that remotely connects with that period, in my view. Brexit is a dystopian choice and there was nothing at all dystopian about the 60s or 70s.

    2. Leonard

      I fail to understand something. The Leave voters had a margin of 2% a year ago and since then much new information has come into the public realm. The Brexit vote was not the immediate economic catastrophe feared, although the pound took a beating. However, it does appear that there will be very serious long term economic penalties that are only now beginning to be evident by the UK leaving the largest economic bloc on earth and a market of 500 million people.

      How about some common sense? Isn’t it better to restructure the EU to be a common market that preserves national needs and governing than to destroy what has been a huge economic success?

      I have no insight whether a re-vote would find the result reversed or amplified. But something this important deserves to be reconsidered if there are alternatives.

      1. John Small

        “restructure the EU to be a common market that preserves national needs and governing ”

        It already is.

        The single market is a ‘common market’. But to work there has to be common standards, that requires a central authority to say what the standards are and to get the different national parliaments to implement the common standards. It’s not much different from IATA setting standards for the aviation industry.

        The single market was a Thatcher idea, and she pushed for it. But having common standards, so that a single market can work, involves having to accept standards that other people have set. Hence the right-wing outcry over ‘EU dictatorship’. I.e. the UK pushes for a single market, and then whinges when it has to abide by the rules to make a single market work.

        Outside the realm of single market, countries are free to pursue there own policies. E.g. education, health and so on.

      2. David H

        “restructure the EU to be a Common Market” .. where have you been the last several decenia .. that’s exactly what it the EU IS.
        That’s what the UK is LEAVING and the UK will now have absolutely NOTHING further to say in how this goes in Europe. UK will be just the same as Nigeria or Chile etc … an OUTSIDER.
        When Brexit is implemented, the UK will find itself going economically right down the tubes. There is talk about building UK’s own agreements with other countries outside the EU.
        Haha .. that’s ALWAYS been possible, the EU didn’t exclude countries carrying out other international trade. If that’s going to be so good then why didn’t the UK do that when they were a member of the EU … why .. because it’s NOT that good and that’s the UK’s future. No-one is waiting for the UK to be knocking on their door to be sold expensive UK goods, they are always cheaper somewhere else.
        The EU was that market for the UK .. now it’s NOT THERE any more.
        The UK will with 100% guarantee, experience a very very painful divorce.
        I really feel sorry for the younger generation that have had their future thrown away by a geriatric generation and the IQ challenged. The UK will eventually be just another small country amongst a lot of other small countries .. just another dog fighting over the same bone thrown to them by the better economies …. such as the EU.

      3. Martin Castellan

        ” However, it does appear that there will be very serious long term economic penalties that are only now beginning to be evident ”

        NO, they were evident before the referendum.

    3. Bertie Fox

      This reminds me of nothing so much than the Tory government’s response to the possibility of nuclear war in the 1980s. While secret reports showed that that the country would be returned to the Stone Age, with tens of millions dead and starving, instead, the government produced a nice, reassuring little booklet, facile and absurd, called ‘Protect and Survive’. It tried to reassure the public that they could survive the holocaust by doing things like white washing windows and hiding under tables, filling baths with water and keeping a few more cans in the cupboard. It was wonderfully satirised by Raymond Brigg’s in his ‘When the Wind Blows.’

      Now we are being given the same kind of facile reassurances about Brexit, even though the government knows the real picture. The problem is, the truth is politically unacceptable, and too much political capital has been sunk into Brexit by our leaders to consider a U turn. Instead we are supposed to believe that cutting ourselves off from our largest markets and facing the external tariff on all exports, we are somehow facing a bright new future in which prosperity will return and austerity will end.

      They know and we all know it is bollocks. It is good that the EU are being 100% transparent about all the negotiations, as we will soon know the whole truth about what is going on. Then watch out for the stampede as people start changing their minds in the way the public often does. It will be hard to find anybody who will admit to ever having voted to leave!

    4. Fleur lewis

      Hope you dont mind Sandra but i posted your comment on my Facebook page. Let me know if you object!!
      Im Fleur Lewis on fb and my profile pic has me standing against railings in a blue top and sunglasses!!! 😊

  2. dominic swords

    So much for democracy. We know what the huge negative impact of this kind of Breixt would be yet May insists it will be good for all and David Davies even claimed recently that no assessment of a ‘hard’`brexit had been done. His body belied his words and this demonstrates why.

  3. Kay

    Can we see more content from the leaked document please? It’s hard to know how this estimate about nurses was calculated. Were there other sectors included in the report?

  4. Jan

    If, as David Davies says, there has been no assessment of the impact of a hard Brexit, then this government is even more stupid and neglectful than I feared.

  5. Nik Gibson

    There was a time when being a member of the EEC was exciting, a fresh start. The price we paid was the demise of the Commonwealth market. The price of food went mad, the essentials rocketed in price and the luxuries plummeted. A wine lake suddenly appeared, along with a beef mountain. Companies managed to find out ways of fiddling VAT expenses by hopping around Europe before ending up in their destination country.
    John major betrayed the country by wriggling out of any referendum we we supposed to have had by joining the EU, which I feel is what most people didn’t want. A matter of sovereignty was stripped away. Our voice within our own country had gone. Brussels now had so much power over us, and we had no control.
    VAT was set at 12.5% to pay for our membership of the EU, the more they demanded the higher it went, until one fifth of our earnings went to the corrupt system that has become the EU.
    Now we want to leave EU, chosen by majority consent. Cameron created this problem by being so arrogant in assuming that the country wanted to remain. I don’t think he realised for one second that a lot of the voters used this as a weapon to get rid of Cameron and the rest of his chronies. I suspect if we had another referendum after he resigned and ran away with his tail between his legs, the result would have been different by a large margin.

    The NHS… Well before Maggie got her claws into the system used to run on a military system. It might have been harsh, it might have been costly, but it worked efficicently.
    Then came along all these accountants and middle management and overloaded the system. Since these people came into the system the NHS has failed to be efficient.
    Build more hospitals, I hear people say… Well I have something to say about that… bollocks to them. We don’t need more hospitals, we need doctors and nurses and equipment to run them. It costs hundreds of millions to build a hospital, that money comes out of the budget to pay for the staff and equipment. We have perfectly serviceable buildings as it is.
    If the NHS needs to save money… then turn down the heating!

    But I have a message for the government, the NHS belongs to the people and not the government, you have no right to sell what is paid for by us to the nearest profiteer.

    The same applies to the country, it belongs to the people and should not be destroyed for the sake of a profit with this fracking scandal.

    I love my country, I have fought for my country, my ancestors did the same and for what? Some public school, jumped up, Rupert to come and take it away.
    Think again Mrs May… I will fight for my country on my home soil if needs be, I will fight for the real people that make this country work and commonsense and not for some shareholders premium dividend.

  6. Brittleware

    Nik Gibson – “VAT was set at 12.5% to pay for our membership of the EU”

    Oh? Do you REALLY imagine that Value Added Tax is paid to the European Union? When it’s actually a tax paid into the UK government’s treasury coffers.

    The percentage of laws even mentioning the EU is 13.6% – which includes things like regulations such as the size of disabled toilet doorways in Romania. Most are simply irrelevant in the UK.

    It’s abundantly clear that this ridiculous opinion poll was “won” by a population with no knowledge of the EU whatsoever, but minds stuffed with lies promulgated by off-shoring non tax paying newspaper proprietors running scared of impending EU legislation limiting their tax haven based activities.

    Good luck as your economy crashes and burns. Only yesterday first quarter growth figures were released in Greece – 0.4%. In the UK? 0.2%.

  7. Jeff

    Life was far more straightforward. Crud, but straight forward. Dave Blair got it right in his comment
    And, as you get older you tend to find change harder to accept / cope with. Many older people (I’m retired) were brought up to mistrust anyone from ‘away’ – in some communities that was the next village or town. The idea that people in your street would be Irish, black or Asian was enough to cause a riot.
    Not many, it seems, had the wonderful class mates I did. At one time in my small mid Wales town school 14 of 29 pupils had parents (a parent) who was not from the UK – Poland, Czechoslovakia, Germany, Yugoslavia, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Irish Republic, South Africa and USA. These pupils weren’t immigrants or foreigners, they were Sue and Dave, Chris and Jenny.
    Older people are more likely to read newspapers and our mainstream press is the most hateful, racist media group on the planet.
    There are also a social reasons. The older generation are generally less well educated and less well travelled.

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