New research using the data from the latest Savanta ComRes poll commissioned by Remain United which found that the Conservatives’ lead has shrunk dramatically to just 7 percentage points finds just 18,000 votes could make all the difference to the keys to Number 10 this week.
Remain United have used the new poll, together with delta polls and other in-constituency data to update their MRP analysis and predictions. Research by the three biggest tactical voting websites is in agreement on the 18 constituencies that could make all the difference on Thursday.
EVE OF ELECTION UPDATE: These are the latest conclusions by Remain United’s analysis of what tactical voting can achieve in marginal seats:
Gina Miller the transparency campaigner who set up Remain United with top polling experts spoke to The London Economic last week about how constitutional changes and boundary changes the Tories have planned make Thursday’s vote a crucial turning point to avoid a very long power grab by Boris Johnson.
Today she said “In 2017, when I ran the biggest tactical voting campaign in that General Election, we were in a similar position of getting back results that showed that tactical voting could wipe out Mrs May’s predicted majority.
“I can see exactly the same happening in this election, and the Tories being once again defeated by voters being smarter than our first past the post electoral system. This time the stakes are even higher, in terms of Brexit and the future of the UK, but voters still have the power to make sure their five minutes in the polling station changes the next five years for our country.”
To find out what the latest polling means for tactical voting in your constituency and more on the methodology, you can visit Remain United’s tactical voting site.
Conservative slip ups on the NHS and honesty
Tory strategists will hope their prospects of securing an overall majority have not been dented by the row which blew up over the treatment of Jack Williment-Barr at Leeds General Infirmary.
A photograph widely circulated on social media showed the boy lying on a pile of coats to keep warm while he waited for a bed for treatment for suspected pneumonia.
Questioned by ITV News, Mr Johnson initially refused to look at the photo on the reporter’s phone before taking the phone and snatched it, putting it in his pocket.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock was dispatched to the hospital in an attempt to defuse the growing media firestorm.
However his appearance prompted further recriminations following fake claims by Conservative sources his aide had been punched by a Labour Party activist.
Labour accused the Tories of “bare-faced lying” after video footage of the incident posted online showed only the Tory party aide walking into someone’s finger as they pointed.
Mr Corbyn claimed reports of the incident show what “media bias looks like”, tweeting: “This never happened. Invented by the Tories to divert your attention from a child having to lie on a hospital floor; reported by media that didn’t bother to check if it was true.”
Meanwhile The Daily Mirror carried a fresh picture of a nine-month-old baby girl who was forced to wait on a chair for six hours at the Countess of Chester Hospital near Ellesmere Port because there was no bed available.
In an election campaign largely devoid of significant slip-ups, it will heighten concern among Conservatives that they remain vulnerable in the face of concerted tactical voting by opponents of Brexit.