Economic forecaster predicts period of lower growth due to Brexit

The UK faces a period of lower growth due to Brexit, according to another forecaster.

The EY ITEM Club said the UK will have three years of lower than predicted economic growth, and if no deal is agreed on Brexit it is likely to be even worse.

The EY Item Club predicted GDP growth of 1.3% this year and 1.5% in 2019, down from 1.4% and 1.6% respectively in its previous outlook three months ago.

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said: “Heightened uncertainties in the run-up to and the aftermath of the UK’s exit could fuel business and consumer caution.

“This is a significant factor leading us to trim our GDP forecasts for 2018 and 2019.”

EY chief economist Mark Gregory said: “The UK economy is going to experience a period of low economic growth for at least the next three years, and businesses need to recognise this and adjust accordingly.

“They should also consider a sharp downside to the economy in the event of a no-deal Brexit and make preparations for such a scenario.”

“Even if the Brexit process goes smoothly, the cyclical risks to the UK economy mean this would still be a worthwhile exercise. Now is the time to start to think about the future shape of any UK business after 2020.”

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